Domestic Politics and International Espionage for a Monday!

Well, a very good morning to you, my time, and welcome to the first proper post on my new Blog.  I am immensely grateful to you for dropping in and I hope you will be back again in the days ahead.

The major story of the weekend threatens to add excitement to the race for the Presidency, here in Brazil, as Marina Silva announces that she will join forces with PSB's Eduardo Campos for 2014 election campaign.

Marina Silva, a lifelong 'eco' activist from the Amazon region, served as a Minister in the Lula da Silva administration before resigning from the Government and the party to stand against President Lula's chosen successor in 2010, Dilma Rousseff; the current President.  Silva polled 19.6 million votes, coming third in the first round vote.  A committed ecological activist she has been seen as standing rather outside the political mainstream and is, therefore, perceived as less tainted than most by the corruption that is all but endemic in Brazilian politics; about which we shall talk in a post this week.  After the 2010 run, she determined to establish her own political party, the Rede Sustentabilidade or Sustainable Network, to fight next year's election.  As is required in Brazil, her party applied to the nation's Electoral Court for formal recognition and the right to contest seats in 2014 but, by a margin of 6:1, the Court handed down a ruling last week that denied the application.  A prospective new party has to show 492,000 signatures supporting its bid, but of the 800,000 signatures claimed by Silva's new group, the Court found that many were inadmissible and Rede fell tens of thousands short of the required figure.

In light of the above failure, Marina Silva was faced with having to abandon her bid for high office or declare candidacy under an existing party before Saturday night, if she was to be eligible for 2014.  Hours before the deadline expired, she announced that she was joining forces with Eduardo Campos and the PSB.  Having previously been adamant that Brazil needed a new, responsive, honest and open approach to government that was found in none of the existing parties, some may now criticise her affiliation with the PSB as less to do with new politics, but rather an example of the old model; more about self and power.  During an interesting chat with friends late on Saturday, I found that while many are attracted to her position against corruption and her drive for open government, a number then shy away when they note the degree to which her religion impinges on, or shapes her political strategy.  A seemingly devout Evangelical Christian (and we shall look at religion in Brazil in a later post), she takes strong positions on abortion, gay issues and other social policy areas that appear to be dictated by her religion.

The statements of Marina Silva and Eduardo Campos over the weekend were short on detail.  While it seemed that Silva was accepting the Vice Presidential slot on Campos's ticket, some opined that if her personal standing strengthens in the months ahead she would make a move for the lead position.  She stressed that she was still a Rede militant, not a PSB militant and said she saw this new affiliation as ''symbolic'', with Rede continuing to exist as an independent pressure group.  She was just about the only politician whose personal numbers strengthened during the June protests and in August Datafolha had her at 26%, with Campos at 8%.  More recent polls have shown Campos sill in single figures and Silva as low as 16%, 22 points behind President Dilma.  Reuters describes the new 'alliance' as a centre-left, business friendly alternative to the President that could have a strong appeal.  We shall have to wait and watch to determine whether the arrangement is stable enough to stand the test of campaign stress, whether Silva suffers hits over her move to get onto the ticket of an existing party (in light of her previously firm stance against parties in the current status quo) and whether a sufficient majority will support a bid for power from such a strong Evangelical.  Whatever happens, Silva may still wield considerable power behind the scenes in the wheeling and dealing that characterises a second round of Presidential polling, in the event that no-one secures a first round win; as currently looks to be likely.

Away from Brazil's domestic politics, we find another story of espionage against the South American 'emerging' power.  With the dust still settling from the spat over the USA's electronic gathering agency, the NSA's operations against Brazilian targets (and the even more insulting and seemingly disdainful half truths or lies that characterised the USA's initial responses to the Government here), we now find that Canada may have been involved in similar activities.  The Brazilian news network Globo has broken the news that Canada's CSEC ran a program entitled Olympia, which was targeted against phones and computers associated with the Mining and Energy Minister in search of industrial/commercial intelligence.  The leak has been made public at a time when Canadian Government and private interests are pushing for closer ties with Brazil and greater involvement with its mining activities.  Having taken a fairly robust stance with the USA over its electronic gathering operations, one assumes that President Dilma will feel constrained to respond similarly to these revelations.

At the time of the USA/NSA leaks, I discussed issues relating to such activities and why they would be conducted against a 'friend and ally' in a previous Blog.  I noted that the interest in Brazil's intentions comes hand in glove with the growing international relevance of the country.  As it became an increasingly important and influential world player, politically and economically, so others became more interested in its genuine position and intent on various issues and, as Brazil began to exploit its vast natural resources, it became particularly important in commercial terms.  There is an almost back handed compliment in the electronic gathering operations, reflecting the new relevance and importance of this emerging giant....but, of course, this is the world of international diplomacy and securing national interests and no state can sit idly by when others undertake actions that may compromise those national interests.  Despite my perception that, 'there, but for the capability, goes every country', one has to adhere to the underlying principle in such activities, 'though shalt not be found out'.  The USA was found out and now Canada seems to have been as well and one assumes the Brazilian Government will feel duty bound to protest and take some sort of action in response; as it did with the USA....though the reaction of family and friends to the news about Canada is markedly less venomous than it was against the spying of 'perfidious' USA (as it is seen here, by many, which we shall also discuss in a future post).

Well, that concludes today's post.  My intention is that this will be the pattern for the morning post each day, highlighting and discussing key news stories from the preceding day (or weekend, in this case - resulting in a longer post than will be the norm).  I shall also publish a number of second posts on various days and they will be more about the place, the people and their culture....the life experience of living in Aracaju on the NE coast of Brazil.

I hope I shall see you back here to peruse both types of offering and thanks, very much indeed, for joining me for this first post.

Stay safe.

Dave