Politics not Principles?

The end of the week is almost upon us!  Many thanks to you for taking the trouble to look in, as the standard working week moves toward its conclusion.  You are most welcome and I am most grateful.

One item in the news of last couple days left Dave a touch befuddled and bemused.  A new Datafolha poll has been released that examines political principles and voting patterns and it seems that, in Brazil, one does not necessarily grow from the other!

The poll suggests that 49% of the population hold 'right wing' principles, with 30% ascribing to those of 'the left'.  If one thinks of the vast tracts of country that are punctuated by relatively small, traditional rural communities and also bears in mind the grip on the population that is held by more conservative Christian creeds, the numbers may make sense.  In addition to that, when previously discussing politics and political corruption I have mooted that Brazil seems only now to be awakening from an almost feudal cultural norm wherein those in positions of power (what elsewhere might be described as positions of service to the community) are ascribed status and privilege that sets them aside from the common herd and has, until only this year, seemed to set them even above the law.  People were meant to know their place, accept it and suffer in silence when necessary or risk being aggressively put back in their box by the military police if they sought to express concerns publicly....until the amazing, if short lived events of last June.  At the same time as it presents as a hedonistic country, it also has very conservative roots.

With 49% of the electorate purportedly being right wing , my bemusement and befuddlement resulted from the fact that the country has been led by the 'left wing' Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores - PT) since 2003; under President Lula da Silva for two Administrations and then the current President Dilma Rousseff.

Datafolha's numbers suggest that 96% of voters fit into the categories right wing, centre right and centre left; leaving a perhaps surprisingly small number in the left wing for a country that suffered under military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985.   Yet across the three dominant categories, the poll suggests that President Dilma Rousseff draws almost the same positive voting intention numbers of 42%.  Puzzled?  You are not alone!

I am no political scientist, but shall venture thoughts on the conundrum; while rather fearing that they will be naive and shallow.

In the first place, I might seek to draw a distinction between social conservatism and right wing conservatism.  Without knowing the specific questions put to the sample of the electorate by Datafolha, I might well imagine people holding to social conservatism appearing to be conventionally right wing when the individual's true position combined his or her stance on social issues with political and even economic aspirations that would comfortably rest in the PT manifesto.  One might have right wing views on abortion and homosexuality while also believing in a more equal distribution of wealth, in this country that many see as the most unequal of the developed/developing nations, and believing in policies to facilitate social mobility and the 'elevation' of the poor.  I am not impugning the professionalism of the way in which the poll was framed, but suggesting that the nature of Brazil's society and history might allow someone to be a social conservative while still able support the PT.

One might identify the strong Evangelical Christian strain in Brazilian politics as an example of the above, of stringent social conservatism while still seeking the 'liberation' of the poor and enhancing of social policy programs.  The power of Evangelicals on the political stage here is significant.  Potential Presidential election rival Marina Silva, running nearest to President Dilma in recent polls, is an ardent Evangelical and, having failed to secure a first round victory in 2010 election, Dilma Rousseff felt constrained to moderate some of her socially liberal positions in order to make her more acceptable to Evangelicals and others as she sought support for the second ballot. (....and I think I may ponder issues relating to religion in Brazil in today's second post, late this afternoon/early evening, my time).

Lastly, in my amateurish offerings to explain the findings of the Datafolha poll, I flag up the nature of coalition government here.  In the wake of two decades of military dictatorship the Brazilian constitution was written to advantage coalition politics, avoiding single party control.  While other nations may run from the idea, believing that coalition government leads to indecision and gridlock (as the USA is reputed to believe....because their style of democracy obviously facilitates strong, stable government that is free from indecision and gridlock....!!!!), in Brazil, I believe the bias toward it grows out of the 1964-85 experience.  President Dilma currently governs the country at the head of a large coalition.  There were seven parties in her first cabinet and the ideological spread of the parties that back her and sustain her in power compasses the far right to far left.  Recognising the Brazilian tradition for coalition all contenders for power tend to shape their message and manifesto to achieve 'the double' of appealing to their own party's support base while not closing the door on the aspirations of other parties that may be needed in both the pre and post election horse trading.  The President's PT party is the embodiment of adaptation in search of electability, transforming itself from its initial, almost Cuban'esque position to one better characterised as centre left democrat.

Well, with other things claiming my time, I shall close.  I did warn you that Dave is but an interested observer when it comes to matters of political science and that my take on explaining the results of the Datafolha poll would be amateurish.  I hope it was not too painful a read and would delight in more learned opinion being offered in comments on this post.  Do educate me.

I intend to publish a second post today, if I can, either late afternoon or early evening my time and, as I mentioned above, I think I shall ponder the realm of religion in Brazil.

My thanks to you for joining me.  Most grateful.  I hope you will look in again.

Until then, stay safe.

Dave